KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021

The purpose of the seminar is to provide a platform for presenting and discussing ongoing research on determinants and consequences of globalisation in general and global value chains in particular. The seminar will take place on an irregular basis at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy or at the Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel. Both are scientific partners of KCG. Information about upcoming presentations will be provided here in advance.

If you have any questions about the KCG Research Seminar, please contact Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu (KCG Coordinator).


KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-4 (Online):

Topic: Decoupling Global Value Chains

Prof. Dr. Peter Eppinger (University of Tübingen)

Abstract: The supply chain contagion sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic has brought an important question to the forefront of the policy debate: Can cutting global value chains (GVCs) benefit a country by shielding it from foreign shocks? Using a quantitative trade model we find that shutting down GVCs causes substantial welfare losses in all countries. In this counterfactual world without GVCs, the international repercussions of a Covid-19 shock in China are reduced on average, but magnified in some countries. A unilateral repatriation of all GVCs by the U.S. would reduce national welfare by 1.6% but barely change U.S. exposure to a foreign shock. More generally, we find across a wide range of scenarios that the reduction in shock exposure due to decoupling does not compensate the direct welfare costs.

Date: Friday, April 16, 2021, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Zoom

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Zoom-Link to the seminar.

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KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-3 (Online):

Topic: Foreign Divestment – Crisis or Chance for China’s Innovation Edge?

Prof. Holger Görg, Ph.D. (Kiel University, IfW & KCG)

Abstract: The recent move towards decoupling from China, prompted by the 2018 trade war, has implications for the innovativeness of Chinese firms. Using patent data from the Chinese State Intellectual Property Office, together with comprehensive firm-level data, applying an inverse propensity score re-weighting methodology to deal with selection bias, we estimate changes in the patenting activity of firms following ownership transition to Chinese owners, linking these changes to the differential taxation incentives offered to foreign investors. Far from crippling innovation, divestment has sparked an increase in patenting – possibly in an effort by the new Chinese owners to reduce their tax burden.

Date: Tuesday, March 16, 2021, 12:30 – 13:30

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

The research seminar is co-organised with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
If interested, please send an Email to frank.bickenbach@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.


KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-2 (Online):

Topic: Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Elections in the First Globalization

Felix Kersting (HU Berlin)

Abstract: We study the “grain invasion” of the first globalization (1880-1913) as a historical counterpart to today’s China shock. We show that trade shocks in agriculture depressed rural counties in Prussia. However, we do not find the decline in income per capita and the political polarization that studies find for today’s trade shock. Instead, workers left affected counties in large numbers. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of trade integration, but depend on labor mobility, too. For our analysis, we combine data from three industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level with national trade data at the product level. For causal identification, we instrument German trade exposure with trade exposure for Italy.

Date: Friday, March 12, 2021, 12:00 – 13:00

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.


KCG Lunch-Time Seminar 2021-1 (Online):

Topic: Unfair Trade? Market Power in Agricultural Value Chains

Lucas Zavala (Yale University, USA)

Abstract: I show that exporter market power prevents farmers from benefiting from international trade. Using microdata from Ecuador, I link exporters to the farmers who supply them across the universe of cash crops. I document that farmers earn significantly less when they sell crops in which export markets are highly concentrated. I propose a model in which farmers choose a crop to produce and an exporter to supply. Exporter market power is driven by two key elasticities, which govern heterogeneity in farmer costs of switching crops and switching exporters. I develop a method to estimate them using exporter responses to international price shocks. The estimates imply that farmers earn half of their marginal revenue product as a result of market power. I evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural support policies in this setting. Fair Trade emerges as a practical tool for fighting market power and helping farmers share in the gains from globalization.

Date: Friday, January 15, 2021, 15:00 – 16:00

Venue: Virtually via Gotomeeting

If interested, please send an Email to kcg-conference@ifw-kiel.de to receive a Gotomeeting-Link to the seminar.