KCG Lunch-Time Seminar on Productivity and Expenditure Effects of Natural Disasters on Oct. 29, 2019
Prof. Gabriel Felbermayr, Ph.D. (IfW, KCG and Kiel University) will give a KCG-Lunch-Time Seminar titled “Quantifying the Short-Run Productivity and Expenditure Effects of Natural Disasters” on October 29, 2019 at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). The seminar is co-organised by IfW and KCG.
Abstract: We estimate the short-run effects of natural disasters on international trade using a panel of monthly trade data and information on the physical intensity of two major types of short-lived disasters: Earthquakes and storms. Results show a strong heterogeneity across disaster types and country groups. While least developed and indebted poor countries see their trade reduced, we find small effects for developed countries. To trace heterogeneous trade effects, we investigate particularly devastating disaster events both in developed and developing economies. We then use these estimates to inform a dynamic quantitative trade model. We disentangle the monthly effects of recent natural disasters on a country’s productivity and expenditure. We also quantify the importance of trade costs and country size in determining the size of international spillover effects of natural disasters. Result show that spillovers are short-lived and negligible if the country affected by an event is small, but sizable for large economies. As a byproduct of our methodology, we provide measures of monthly country-specific economic activity.
The seminar will take place at 12.30 – 13.30 on Oct. 29, 2019 (Tuesday) in the Lecture Hall (A032) at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Kiellinie 66, 24105 Kiel). More information about the KCG Lunch-Time Seminars can be found here.